Long-term price models and cycles
Halvings, power-law and stock-to-flow debates, the four-year rhythm.
Long-term price-modeling and cycle-analysis frameworks for Bitcoin. The area divides cleanly into two clusters. Long-term trajectory models capture Bitcoin's secular price path on multi-year-to-multi-decade horizons — the Power Law as the current consensus framework, Stock-to-flow as the prior framework retained for…
Long-term trajectory models
These notes treat the secular price path. Each is structured as: what the model claims, the underlying mechanism, empirical fit, predictions, and counter-arguments
Santostasi and Perrenod's framework: $P(t) = A \cdot t^n$ with $n \approx 5.7$. Price as power-law function of time since genesis, mechanism grounded in network-effects-driven adoption…
Ammous's hardness framework (surviving) and Plan B's price model (broken post-2021). The critique content from the formerly-separate "Critiques of stock-to-flow" note is integrated into…
The pre-Power-Law family of long-term frameworks. Trolololo's log-regression and the rainbow-chart visualization. Treated as Power-Law-precursor frameworks with weaker theoretical grounding…
The network-value framework. $V \propto n^2$ applied to Bitcoin's active-address count; Tim Peterson's quantitative work; relation to Power Law as underlying mechanism
The Lindy framework: technologies that have survived $t$ years are expected to survive $t$ more. Taleb's formalization; Lindy as Bitcoin-survival case rather than price model directly
Rogers' diffusion-of-innovations framework, S-curve adoption (Weibull CDF as Perrenod's preferred form), where Bitcoin currently sits in its adoption curve. Distinct from but complementary…
The cycle-over-cycle declining-return-amplitude framework. Naturally embedded in Power Law; treated explicitly here. Implications for cycle-top expectations and long-horizon allocation
Cyclical and macro-regime models
These notes treat the oscillatory and regime-driven structure that rides on top of the secular trend
The halving-anchored cycle framework. The 2011, 2013, 2017, 2021, and 2024-2025 cycles compared; whether halvings drive cycles causally or are merely time markers; the Perrenod-log-periodic…
Discrete scale invariance superimposed on the Power Law's continuous scale invariance. Sinusoidal-in-log-time oscillations explaining ~74% of the residual variance around the Power Law…
The Howell/CrossBorder-Capital framework. Bitcoin's mid-horizon price correlates with global central-bank liquidity (M2 plus reserve dynamics) at ~10-12 week leads/lags. Operationalized by…
The manufacturing-cycle leading-indicator framework. ISM Manufacturing PMI as a forward-looking signal for risk-asset and Bitcoin cyclical positioning. Less canonical than global liquidity…