On-chain analytics and market psychology
Reading the chain itself — cohorts, cost basis, and crowd behaviour.
On-chain analytics frameworks for Bitcoin, derived from the public ledger. The area divides into three metric clusters plus a synthesis layer. Valuation and cost-basis metrics (Realized price, MVRV ratio, NUPL, SOPR) address whether Bitcoin is over- or under-valued by anchoring price against on-chain cost basis.…
Valuation and cost-basis metrics
These metrics anchor current price against on-chain cost basis. They answer the question: "is Bitcoin expensive or cheap relative to where holders bought it?"
total realized cap ÷ circulating supply. The aggregate on-chain cost basis; the definitional anchor for the cluster. Historically acts as a structural support level during deep corrections
market cap ÷ realized cap (equivalently, price ÷ realized price). The flagship cycle-positioning indicator. High MVRV marks overheating; low MVRV marks capitulation. The MVRV Z-score…
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss: (market cap − realized cap) ÷ market cap. A close mathematical cousin of MVRV expressed as a fraction. Calibrated against the psychological-phase framework…
Spent Output Profit Ratio: realized price of spent outputs ÷ acquired price. The realized-side analog to MVRV's unrealized framing. SOPR > 1 means coins are being spent at profit; SOPR < 1…
Holder behavior and cohort metrics
These metrics read the age, size, and movement of the UTXO set to characterize what cohorts of holders are doing
supply-by-age distribution; the iconic stacked-area chart showing the fraction of supply that has been held for each age band. Reveals accumulation and distribution phases by cohort age
the 155-day cohort framework Check has been most influential in developing. LTH supply growth marks accumulation; LTH distribution marks late-cycle
supply-weighted velocity: the sum of coin-days reset by transactions. Old-coin movement registers as large CDD spikes; particularly informative when long-dormant supply suddenly moves
large-holder positioning; entity-size cohort dynamics; institutional vs retail behavioral signatures
Flow and sentiment metrics
These metrics extend the on-chain framework to flows across boundaries that matter (exchanges, mining-entity wallets) and to off-chain sentiment proxies
net Bitcoin moving onto vs off of exchange-custody wallets. Net inflow typically signals distribution intent; net outflow typically signals accumulation. Custodial-ETF flows complicate the…
miner-wallet outflows; mining-entity behavior; the spent-by-miner cohort. Miner capitulation has been a recurring late-bear signal historically
off-chain sentiment proxies (Fear & Greed Index, funding rates, futures basis, social-sentiment scores). Strictly not on-chain but conventionally bundled with on-chain analysis as the…
Synthesis notes
These notes integrate the metric layer into operational frameworks
Check's cycle-phase framework integrating multiple metrics into a coherent narrative: capitulation/accumulation → recovery/disbelief → belief/optimism → euphoria/distribution →…
the operational bridge to longer-horizon frameworks. How intra-cycle on-chain signals integrate with Bitcoin and global liquidity and Bitcoin and the ISM PMI cycle for macro-aware…